The 2025 NFL MVP Is Hiding In Plain Sight
Football is finally BACK.
As you guys know, I love QB’s. I can make a case for pretty much anyone. Did I say that there’s no QB I’d rather have than Kirk Cousins in the final 2 min of a game? Yes. Did I once do a Tony’s Tiers list of NFL QB’s and have Patrick Mahomes outside of the Patrick Mahomes Tier? Of course. Did I possibly say that Will Levis if you squinted looked like Dan Marino? I burned those tapes so there’s no evidence of that. Now that we have all that out of the way, let’s talk some ball.
The NFL had elite QB play in 2024 — the NFL MVP Josh Allen had a great season, accounting for 41 all-purpose TD’s and 4,200 total yards. Lamar Jackson lit up the league for 5,087 all-purpose yards and 44 TD’s. Joe Burrow led the league in passing TD’s (43) and passing yards (4,918), and was Top 4 in completion percentage and touchdown rate. Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs once again to the Super Bowl, and Jalen Hurts won the damn thing. You ready for this…
The $265M dollar man. Mr. Irrelevant. Brock Purdy. Your 2025 NFL MVP.
Overlooked, disregarded, not flashy, not sexy, small, system QB — and yet quietly elite. If you look at his numbers from 2024 he doesn’t belong in the conversation with any of the QB’s mentioned above.
66% completion, sub-4,000 yards, 20:12 TD/INT ratio, sub-97 RTG. By all accounts a sub-par season for an NFL starter en route to a 6-11 record.
Let’s dig a little deeper into what actually happened with Purdy and the 49ers in 2024.
Injuries.
The 49ers were the most injured team of 2024.
Offense
Christian McCaffrey — Bilateral Achilles tendonitis + torn PCL
Brandon Aiyuk — torn ACL
Deebo Samuel — multiple games missed (calf, pneumonia)
George Kittle — multiple games missed (hamstring)
Elijah Mitchell — missed season (hamstring)
Jordan Mason — high ankle sprain (IR after Week 13)
Jon Feliciano (RG) — missed season (knee)
Trent Williams (LT) — multiple games post-Week 10 (ankle)
Aaron Banks (LG) — multiple games (concussion)
These injuries forced Kyle Shanahan to lean on Purdy even more to move the ball down the field. For context — the 49ers in 2023 were 28th in the NFL in Early Down Pass Rate at 51%. In 2024, that jumped to 55%, putting them at 15th. Teams knew that the running game was toast.
Even with more weight on his shoulders, and his supporting cast of CMC, Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle playing only 57 snaps together all year, Purdy was able to make winning plays time and time again.
Here are a few stats from Warren Sharp (Sharp Football Analysis) on Purdy:
Purdy ended his third season with 8.5 yards per pass attempt (#3) and 5th in EPA per dropback (0.17). He ranked 4th in success rate (49.8%).
Purdy completed a league-high 57.9% of his passes on throws 10+ yards downfield (league rate was 48.5%).
Based on player tracking data, Purdy shifted from the #34 most aggressive QB in 2023 to the #8 most aggressive QB in 2024. (This tracks the number of passing attempts a QB makes into tight coverage, where a defender is within 1 yard of the receiver at the time of completion/incompletion.) Purdy had to force the ball into coverage more often last year. Despite that, Purdy completed 2% more passes than expected, which was #9 in the NFL, nearly identical to his 2023 mark of +2.5%.
As you can see, the counting stats may tell you that Purdy was average. Warren Sharp tells you that he was actually better than expected, given the limitations of injuries, defenses scheming against SF’s run game, and a lackluster defense.
Now why on Earth would I have Brock Purdy as the 2025 NFL MVP? At most sportsbooks nationwide he’s hovering around +3000.
He’s wayyyyyyyyyyy too low. Outside of the Top 6 guys who are the best QB’s in the league — Purdy is behind guys like:
Justin Herbert (Run-heavy O with current Coach/OC doesn’t give me much confidence in a huge year for Herbert)
Jordan Love (Another run-heavy O with multiple B WR’s but no alpha as of yet, tough division)
CJ Stroud (Bad offensive line with a very limited running game, alpha WR in Nico Collins — check how many times a good QB on a bad team won the MVP)
Baker Mayfield (Liam Coen gone, Godwin coming off multiple surgeries, 32-year-old WR1, promising young rookie in Ekbuga with a below-average defense)
Caleb Williams (New coach, new system, growing pains, and a tough division)
Kyler Murray (STINKS)
Dak Prescott (Actually kinda like him for a big bounce-back year with no running game and adding George Pickens)
As you can clearly see, all of the QB’s outside of the Top 6 can have holes poked into their MVP boat. The one hole you can poke into Brock Purdy’s MVP boat is, “What if his weapons all get hurt again?” Ok sure, you got me there — BUT — if we can look into a crystal ball to the end of the season and say:
CMC played in 15 games
Kittle played in 16
Trent Williams played in 16
Pearsall, Jennings play all 17
Brandon Aiyuk gives you a solid 6 or 7 games gearing up for the playoffs
This can easily be a team competing for the #1 seed in the NFC.
A bet for Brock Purdy to win MVP is not just that — it’s a bet on the offensive scheme and brilliance of Kyle Shanahan. It’s a bet that the 49ers don’t have literally the worst injury luck like the ‘24 season. It’s a bet on their schedule.
Let’s start in the NFC West (which is in a transition period): Stafford aging, Arizona figuring out what they have with Kyler Murray, Sam Darnold and a rebuilding roster in Seattle. It lines up perfectly for the 49ers to not only be division champs once again, but take a look at their non-division schedule — AFC South and NFC South + the Browns, Bears, and Giants.
Man, it REALLY pays to come in last in your division.
Two years ago, when the 49ers were NFC West Division Champs with a 12-5 record and the 3rd best point differential in the league, Brock Purdy was unreal.
Overall Passing (2023)
Completion %: 69.4% (3rd in NFL)
Yards: 4,280 (5th)
Touchdowns: 31 (T-3rd)
Interceptions: 11
Passer Rating: 113.0 (1st in NFL)
Yards per Attempt: 9.6 (1st in NFL)
Advanced Metrics
EPA per Play: Top 3 among all QBs
Success Rate: Top 3
Completion % Over Expectation (CPOE): #1 in NFL
Deep Passing: Top-tier passer rating on throws 20+ yards
Play Action: #1 in EPA/play on play action passes
Situational
Third Down: Top 5 in success rate
Red Zone: One of the best TD conversion rates
Under Pressure: Top 10 in passer rating
Taking all this into consideration — I think Vegas has mispriced Brock Purdy’s odds at winning the NFL MVP this season. Elite numbers when his supporting cast is healthy, an elite playcaller and offensive guru, a cake-walk schedule with some of the worst teams in the sport.
I’m betting on a big year for the San Francisco 49ers, and their quietly ELITE QB.
-10DT
Let me know what you think and if you’ll be throwing a little future on BP. Hit me up @10daytony on socials.