Here are the 4 things that I’m cooking on after NFL Week 2.
5 Things I Can’t Stop Thinking About
JUSTIN HERBERT — IT’S OVER.
I don’t know how many more times I can do this.
I defended Justin Herbert. I bought the Herbert MVP stock. I built the Herbert MVP island house. Last week I told you it was now or never.
Well.
It’s over.
OptaSTATS@OptaSTATSThe Chargers are the second team in NFL history to lose back-to-back games by double digits with both coming at home against teams that had a sub-.200 win pct the previous season. The other was the 1926 Racine Tornadoes (Oct. 10-17), who played just one more game before folding.12:59 AM · Sep 21, 2026 · 1.67M Views142 Replies · 1.1K Reposts · 12.7K Likes
Sheil Kapadia@SheilKapadiaStart of the Justin Herbert/Mike McDaniel era: * 32nd percentile offensive performance in Week 1 (EPA/Drive) * 20th percentile in Week 2 Two losses as home favorites. Upcoming schedule: at BUF, at SEA, DEN, at KC, at LAR, HOU, at BAL. This could get really ugly really fast.11:29 PM · Sep 20, 2026 · 58.3K Views20 Replies · 45 Reposts · 589 Likes
Polymarket Football@PolymarketBlitz𝐅𝐈𝐑𝐒𝐓 𝟐 𝐖𝐄𝐄𝐊𝐒 Justin "If" Herbert Deshaun Watson - 32/54 (C/ATT) - 40/52 (C/ATT) - 59.3 comp% - 76.9 comp% - 401 pass yards - 443 pass yards - 2 pass TD - 3 pass TD - 3 INT - …
4:12 AM · Sep 21, 2026 · 401K Views91 Replies · 359 Reposts · 5.71K LikesAt some point we have to stop talking about the arm talent, the physical gifts, the throws, the analytics, the EPA, the “if he just had...” excuses and start talking about what actually happens when the lights come on.
Because the Chargers have enough.
Harbaugh. McDaniel. Herbert. McConkey. Hampton. The O-line The defense. The roster.
And yet I’m running out of reasons to explain why this thing doesn’t work. I don’t mean Justin Herbert is a bad quarterback. He isn’t. That’s what makes this so annoying. I’m saying I don’t think we can continue to treat him like he’s one breakthrough away from becoming the guy we’ve been telling ourselves he is for six years. He’s just not a winner. I don’t know if it’s some curse with the franchise but I can confidently say that Herbert will never win a Super Bowl in his present situation.
I spent all offseason building a vacation home on Justin Herbert MVP Island.
Turns out the island is empty for a reason.
2. JAYDEN DANIELS IS RG3 2.0?
I really hope I’m wrong about this one, because this is starting to feel way too familiar. Washington gets a quarterback who has one of the most electric rookie seasons we’ve ever seen. He wins Offensive Rookie of the Year, takes the Commanders to the NFC Championship Game and everyone is talking about the future of the franchise - with good reason, take a look at these numbers.
Then year two happens and he dislocates and fractures his elbow basically costing him the season.
And now, year three starts and he dislocates the SAME ELBOW he injured the year before.
This is how we get to the RG3 conversation.
Because they’re playing the same position for the same franchise and we’re watching the beginning of what looks eerily similar to the same story.
RG3 was the No. 2 overall pick, won Offensive Rookie of the Year and took Washington to the playoffs as a rookie. Daniels was the No. 2 overall pick, won Offensive Rookie of the Year and took Washington to the NFC Championship Game as a rookie.
It’s not just that Jayden Daniels is hurt (he should be fine after a few weeks and will play with a brace on his left arm), the part that scares me is that we’re watching a quarterback whose entire superpower is based on his ability to create outside of structure - run, scramble, improvise, make something happen when there’s nothing and he gets hurt bracing for impact with his off arm, the same off arm he injured last year.
I don’t want to be right about this. Jayden Daniels is special when he’s healthy. But we’ve seen this movie before in Washington.
Same franchise.
Same position.
Same No. 2 pick.
Same Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Same injury concerns?
Same outcome?
I really hope not.
BROCK PURDY IS REALLY LIKE THAT.
I owe Brock Purdy an apology.
Not because I was wrong about him.
Because I wasn’t loud enough about being right.
Last year I wrote a whole column telling you Brock Purdy was my 2025 NFL MVP pick. I spent approximately 1,700 words explaining why the “system QB” thing was bs, why the 49ers’ 2024 season was completely distorted by injuries, and why Purdy was quietly one of the best quarterbacks in football. 2025 ended in a similar fashion and we found out about the electrical substation wreaking havoc on players’ bodies.
Here’s the link if you want to refresh your memory:
I was early.
VERY early.
And now I think we can stop pretending this guy is some sort of quarterback Make-A-Wish kid who wandered into Kyle Shanahan’s offense and accidentally became good.
Brock Purdy is ELITE
The thing that always bothered me about the Purdy conversation was how much of it was based on aesthetics. No he’s not 6’5” 255 like Josh Allen, he can’t move around the field at a different speed like Lamar Jackson, he doesn’t have the arm like a Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes - and yes he white, loves Jesus and looks like a youth pastor.
So we decided he must be a system QB.
Meanwhile, Purdy continued his quiet dominance over every important statistical category known to man for QB’s.
In that 2025 column, I pointed out that Purdy was throwing the ball downfield, ranking near the top of the league in EPA per dropback, completing 57.9% of his passes 10+ yards downfield, and doing it while the 49ers were getting absolutely decimated by injuries.
The argument was always:
“Yeah, but look at the guys around him.”
Ok.
Look at the guys around him now.
CMC, Old ass Mike Evans, wrong side of 30 off an Achilles tear George Kittle, Old ass Deebo Samuel, Demarcus Robinson who got hurt and FB Kyle Juszczyk.
And he’s still doing it.
Kyle Shanahan is obviously an offensive genius. I’m not taking that away from him. But at some point, the quarterback has to execute the offense AND get credit for doing so.
All Brock Purdy has done is be one of the best QB’s in football as the ground beneath him swallows up his entire team and practice facility.
I don’t think Brock Purdy is secretly the best quarterback in football.
I don’t need him to be.
I just think he’s been one of the most consistently underrated quarterbacks in football for about three years now.
And people need to start paying attention.
THE BENGALS FIXED THEIR DEFENSE?
Wait.
Are the Cincinnati Bengals actually good?
Like... actually good?
The Bengals have spent the last few years doing the funniest possible version of roster construction.
Joe Burrow.
Ja’Marr Chase.
Tee Higgins.
Pay the offense ALL THE MONEY.
And then apparently hope the defense figures it out through prayer and fasting.
But something looks different this year.
And most importantly, they aren’t making the defense put the offense in impossible situations every single week.
This Houston game was going to be a measuring stick on both sides of the ball - could the Bengals offense score vs arguably the best defense in football and could their defense contain a less than potent offensive attack. We all saw what Chase did. but take a look at some of these defensive numbers.
We’ve spent years talking about Cincinnati like they’re a team that is always one defensive stop away from being a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Maybe this is finally the year they figured out the other half of the equation.
TSCSWSA
Awarded to the pass catcher who did absolutely nothing in his game even though he was not injured and played a full complement of snaps.
Cole Kmet — CHI, TE
Jerry Jeudy — CLE, WR
Marvin Harrison Jr. — ARI, WR
Chris Bell — MIA, WR
WOW I DIDN’T THINK I’D BE RIGHT SO SOON
Last week’s NFL Stock Market I told you to BUY the Saints and SELL the Giants.
THE SAINTS BEAT THE RAVENS
I spent last week telling you to keep an eye on the Saints. Then they went out and beat the Ravens. Now the real question is can they actually put a full game together instead of playing desperation ball in the 2nd half.
The Shough/Kellen Moore thing is getting really interesting. I thought there was something there at the beginning of the season, I didn’t know it would be paying immediate dividends 2 games into the season.
We’re officially tracking the Saints very closely.
THE GIANTS
Last week I told you the Giants were fools gold.
I didn’t think they’d try to prove me right this quickly.
My entire argument was that the Giants had built a pretty fun little offense around three players who all have legitimate injury questions.
Jaxson Dart.
Cam Skattebo.
Malik Nabers.
Through one game, Dart looked like an upper echelon QB, Nabers looked fluid in his first game back, and Skat looked every bit as bowling ball as last year.
Then Monday Night Football happened.
The Giants were always going to be one of those teams where the margin for error was microscopic. They don’t have enough depth or enough proven talent to absorb major injuries to the guys carrying the offense.
So my Giants take went from: “I’m worried this thing is going to fall apart.” to “Oh, It’s already falling apart.”
SHOUT OUT TO THE OLD GUYS.
Aaron Donald and Davante Adams win the Old Guys Getting It Done Award - always a reality check when guys my age are getting called old and everyone is in shock and awe when they put up monster games. You’d think it was the knight from Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade running a double move on the safety leaving him in the dust, or a huge stop on 4th down plugging up the a-gap and stonewalling a running back in the crucial final moments of the game, or scoring 52 in an adult league 30 and over division game! Us mid-30’s guys can still get after it!
That’s it for this week. We’re going to continue to add stuff to the running tally of HOF throughout the season.
If you made it this far, you probably have an opinion on this too, send this to the group chat and let me know what they think.
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Subscribe. Share it with a friend. And tell me where you think I’m wrong - so I can tell you that I’m right.
JBTN.
-10DAY
Good stuff, Tony. I laughed at the Brock Purdy apology bit.
I need to hear your take on CJ Stroud in future posts. I'm tired of squinting. I'm tired of making excuses. I'm tired of the TOs. I'm tired of the him and Caleb Williams memes. What the hell do the Texans do about him?